The Players Championship Preview

The Players Championship begins tomorrow, and we'll get to hear NBC and Golf Channel spark a debate among themselves that no one else cares about - should The Players be a major?

Even though I view the debate as insincere fodder designed by the Tour to attempt to make its flagship event a major for financial reasons, the tournament is always exciting and features one of the most recognizable courses and one of the most famous holes in American golf, the Island (Cue the blowhards that remind you, "It's actually a peninsula,".) Green of the par-3 17th hole.

The TPC Sawgrass underwent major renovations in 2007 that were actually well receive by most players. Since the course was significantly renovated in 2007, that will be the starting point of the preview.

Phil Mickelson won the first Players that was contested on the newly revamped Sawgrass. He entered the event ranked No. 3 in the world. Following Mickelson's victory, only three winners have been ranked outside of the top-20 in the Official World Golf Rankings: Tim Clark in 2010 (40th), K.J, Choi in 2011 (34th), and Martin Kaymer in 2014 (61st). Kaymer should be treated as somewhat of an exception as he would go on to win the U.S. Open the following month at Pinehurst No. 2 and would finish 2014 ranked 12th in the world, and he is the first player in history to win the Players and U.S. Open in the same season.

The course was both designed and renovated by Pete Dye, a fact that is probably useless to put in writing because if you're a golf fan, you're yelling, "WE KNOW!" as you read, and if you're not, you don't care. I mention the fact because Pete Dye courses are typically thought to ball-strikers' golf courses that put a premium on hitting fairways and greens - a novel concept, I know.

Since 2007, all but three winners of the golf tournament have been ranked in the top-25 of either strokes gained tee-to-green or a combination of strokes gained on approach shots and strokes gained off-the-tee. The exceptions are Kaymer, Clark, and Henrik Stenson in 2009. All of those players have a reputation for being great ball strikers when they are playing well, and Stenson is one of the most respected ball strikers in the world.

Another trend from winners is that each winner made the cut the previous year and three of the winners finished inside the top-8. Additionally no one has repeated as champion at The Players, and no one has won more than one title since the renovations.

Therefore, when picking a winner, look for a player that is inside the Top-20 in the OWGR, top-25 in strokes gained tee-to-green/combination of strokes gained on approach shots and strokes gained off-the-tee, made the cut the previous year but hasn't won the title yet, and has success on at the venue.

Here are players that fit the criteria above - Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Branden Grace, Patrick Reed, and Hideki Matsuyama. Just missing the cut because of OWGR are Charl Schwartzel (21st), Kevin Na (26th), Marc Leishman (35th), Chris Kirk (50th), Graham DeLaet (126th), and Alex Cejka (149th).

Since 2007 only two winners had won at least one tournament worldwide prior to his arrival at Sawgrass - Tiger Woods (Farmers Insurance, WGC-Cadillac Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational) and Phil Mickelson (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am). Scott, Watson, Grace, and Matsuyama have all won previously this season. However, one of Adam Scott's wins was the Cadillac Championship like Woods while his other was the Honda Classic. Both are Florida golf tournaments like The Players.

Now, we have to narrow the list from there. Adam Scott is a world-class player, but I don't put him in the class of Mickelson or Woods, so begrudgingly, I will leave him on the table. Bubba Watson's best finish at the event is a tie for 37th, and no one wants to pull for Bubba, so he gone. Sucks to suck.

Therefore, that leaves us with Rors (angels sing), DJ, and Fatrick Reed. If you want to take Dustin Johnson, be my guest, but the finish at the Stadium Course is pressure packed and requires clutch shot after clutch shot. No thank you. I wouldn't have much of an argument if you made the case for Reed. Hell, I just did, but I think that currently there is a clear gap between Day, Spieth, and McIlroy and the rest of the field. Rory finished inside the top-10 last year at the event and has three consecutive top-10 finishes at the PGA Tour's flagship event. Selfishly, I would love to see him win because he's my guy, and I would love to see him have a big win heading into the summer with Spieth, Day, and McIlroy's winning four-of-the-last-six huge events worldwide.

THROW IT TO ME!!!

Ride or Die baby.